The typical U.S. home now costs 4.7 times the median household income, the fifth straight annual increase, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies’ State of the Nation’s Housing 2026 report. When housing gets that expensive, people move, and the data shows where: out of the priciest coastal metros and toward places where a paycheck still covers a mortgage. This report combines NAR price data, Harvard JCHS research, BEA cost-of-living figures and Census migration estimates to map where home prices are driving moves in 2026.
Quick answer: High home prices are pushing people out of California, the New York area, Hawaii and other high-cost markets. Nine of the country’s 10 most expensive housing markets sit in metros that lost residents to other states in 2025. Movers are heading mainly to the Carolinas, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona and parts of the Midwest.
How Unaffordable Is Housing in 2026?
By almost any measure, U.S. housing remains far less affordable than it was before the pandemic. Harvard JCHS findings, as summarized by Virginia REALTORS, include:
- Home prices were 54% higher in early 2026 than in January 2020.
- 72 of the nation’s 100 largest markets saw prices rise more than 50% between 2020 and 2026.
- The monthly payment on a median-priced home reached $2,420, up from $1,240 at the end of 2020.
- Only 23% of listings nationwide were affordable to a household earning $75,000 or less, down from 49% in 2019.
- Property taxes rose 31% over the past six years and homeowners insurance premiums rose 72%.
- A 20% down payment on 2025’s median home price ($409,000) required about $81,700, and 20.7 million owner households were cost burdened in 2024.
Price growth has slowed, but prices haven’t fallen. The national median existing single-family home price was $434,900 in the second quarter of 2026, up 1.5% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors’ Q2 2026 metro home price report. Prices rose in 80% of the metro areas NAR tracks. NAR estimated that a typical family spent 23.8% of its income on mortgage payments in the quarter, up from 21.8% in the first quarter.
Mortgage rates add to the squeeze. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.03% for the week of September 24, 2026, up from 6.30% a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
The Most Expensive Markets Are Losing Residents
The clearest link between prices and migration shows up at the top of the market. The table below lists NAR’s 10 most expensive metro housing markets for the second quarter of 2026 alongside each area’s net domestic migration (people moving in from other parts of the U.S. minus people moving out) for the year ending July 2025. Prices come from NAR’s Q2 2026 report; migration comes from the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 metro-area estimates. NAR’s price areas use slightly different boundaries from Census metro definitions, so Anaheim and Los Angeles are both matched to the Census Los Angeles metro.
| NAR Price Area | Median Single-Family Price, Q2 2026 | Census Metro Area | Net Domestic Migration, 2025 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | $2,050,000 | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara | -19,095 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | $1,500,000 | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont | -29,692 |
| Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA | $1,485,000 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim | -130,828 |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | $1,183,000 | Urban Honolulu | -6,682 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad, CA | $1,075,000 | San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad | -23,876 |
| Salinas, CA | $982,600 | Salinas | -2,697 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | $961,800 | Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura | -4,991 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA | $954,400 | San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles | +281 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | $885,100 | Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury | -5,711 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA | $879,900 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim | -130,828 |
Nine of the ten price areas sit in metros that lost more residents to other parts of the country than they gained. San Luis Obispo was the lone exception, with a small net gain of 281. The Los Angeles metro alone lost a net 130,828 people to domestic migration in 2025 and 812,324 over the five years from July 2020 to July 2025, based on the same Census dataset.
The pattern extends beyond the top 10. The New York metro lost 168,105 residents to domestic migration in 2025, Boston lost 29,132 and Washington, D.C. lost 23,791. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach lost 113,724, the third-largest metro loss in the country after New York and Los Angeles.
State Cost of Living and Migration
Housing is the biggest reason some states are far more expensive than others. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 2024 Regional Price Parities, where 100 equals the national average, found California had the highest housing-rent price level of any state at 154.3, while West Virginia had the lowest at 54.2. In other words, housing costs in California run nearly three times as high as in West Virginia.
The table below compares the four highest-cost and four lowest-cost areas by overall BEA price level with their net domestic migration in the year ending July 2025, from the Census Bureau’s state components-of-change data.
| State | BEA Regional Price Parity, 2024 (U.S. = 100) | Net Domestic Migration, 2025 |
| California | 110.7 | -229,077 |
| Hawaii | 110.0 | -8,876 |
| District of Columbia | 109.9 | -4,128 |
| New Jersey | 108.8 | -37,428 |
| Iowa | 87.8 | -970 |
| Oklahoma | 87.8 | +14,492 |
| Mississippi | 87.0 | -917 |
| Arkansas | 86.9 | +14,475 |
Every one of the four most expensive areas lost residents to other states in 2025. California and Hawaii actually shrank in total population, according to the Census Bureau’s January 2026 population release. At the other end, the picture is more mixed: Oklahoma and Arkansas gained movers, while Iowa and Mississippi were roughly flat. Cheap housing alone doesn’t pull people in. Jobs, climate, family ties and taxes matter too. But high costs reliably push people out.
Where Priced-Out Movers Are Going
The states gaining the most domestic migrants in 2025 were North Carolina (+84,064), Texas (+67,299), South Carolina (+66,622), Tennessee (+42,389) and Arizona (+31,107), according to the Census Bureau’s Vintage 2025 estimates. All sit in regions where homes cost considerably less than on the coasts. In August 2026, the median existing-home price was $366,500 in the South and $340,400 in the Midwest, compared with $556,900 in the Northeast and $619,100 in the West, per NAR’s August 2026 existing-home sales report.
Homebuyer search data points the same way. Redfin’s Q1 2026 migration analysis found a record 19.1% of its users were looking to move to a different metro, and explicitly linked the trend to affordability pressures. The top metros users were searching to leave were New York, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Jose, Washington, D.C. and Chicago. The top destinations were Orlando, North Port, Miami, Cape Coral, Las Vegas, Tampa and Phoenix. Redfin noted that people leaving expensive metros typically head to Sun Belt locales.
Within regions, movers are also trading big, expensive counties for smaller, cheaper ones. The Census Bureau’s 2025 county and metro estimates release found that the 50 counties with 1 million or more residents had a combined net domestic migration loss of 637,634 people between July 2024 and July 2025, while counties with 50,000 to 999,999 residents gained 533,766. A separate Census Bureau analysis of growth on the outer edges of major metros looked at four large metros and found that, with some exceptions, growth this decade came mostly on their outer edges rather than in city centers. In the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, for example, three outer suburbs grew by more than 20% while Minneapolis grew 0.1% and St. Paul shrank 1.5%.
Moving-industry data agrees on the origins. United Van Lines’ 2025 National Movers Study ranked New Jersey (62% outbound), New York (58%) and California (58%) as the top outbound states. The company also noted that “rising housing costs are beginning to constrain even traditionally attractive regions,” which is why Texas and Florida shifted from strongly inbound to balanced in 2025.
When Destinations Get Expensive Too
Affordability-driven migration has a built-in limit: popular destinations get more expensive as people arrive. Florida is the clearest example. Its net domestic migration fell from 310,892 in 2022 to 22,517 in 2025, according to the Census Bureau. Rising ownership costs beyond the purchase price, including the 72% national jump in insurance premiums cited by Harvard JCHS, add to the pressure on buyers everywhere.
The market is now correcting in some former hot spots. Redfin’s August 2026 housing report found median sale prices down 6.3% year over year in Austin and 2.6% in Fort Worth, while prices rose 7.8% in Milwaukee. Three Midwest metros also made NAR’s top 10 for the fastest-rising prices in Q2 2026: Lansing, Michigan (+7.8%), Canton, Ohio (+7.7%) and Milwaukee (+6.8%), per NAR.
That suggests the affordability map is shifting. Buyers who once would have gone to Austin or South Florida are now finding better value in parts of the Midwest and in Texas markets where prices are falling. The Midwest recorded positive net domestic migration of about 16,000 people in 2025, its first positive year this decade, according to the Census Bureau.
How to Use Affordability Data When Choosing Where to Move
- Compare total housing cost, not just price. Property taxes and insurance have risen faster than prices in many areas. A cheaper house in a high-insurance coastal county can cost more per month than a pricier one inland.
- Look at the price trend, not just the level. Markets with falling prices, such as Austin and Fort Worth in 2026, can offer more negotiating room. Markets with fast appreciation may be cheap now but less so in two years.
- Check local wages. BEA price parities show living costs vary by more than 20% between the most and least expensive states. Make sure any job or remote-work arrangement still makes sense at your destination’s pay levels.
- Include the move in your budget. A long-distance move is a one-time cost, but it’s a real one. Get written estimates before you commit so the savings you’re chasing aren’t eaten up by moving-day surprises.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are high home prices causing people to move to other states?
The data points that way. Nine of NAR’s 10 most expensive metro housing markets were in metros that lost residents to domestic migration in 2025, and the four highest-cost areas by BEA price level all had net domestic out-migration. Redfin also links record relocation searches to affordability pressures.
What is the home price-to-income ratio in 2026?
About 4.7, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. That means the median home costs nearly five times the median household income, up for the fifth straight year.
Which states are people leaving because of housing costs?
California (-229,077), New York (-137,586), New Jersey (-37,428) and Massachusetts (-33,340) had among the largest net domestic losses in 2025, per the Census Bureau. California and New Jersey are also among the most expensive states by BEA’s price parity measure.
Where are priced-out homeowners moving?
Mostly to the Carolinas, Texas, Tennessee and Arizona, and increasingly to parts of the Midwest. North Carolina gained the most domestic migrants of any state in 2025, with 84,064.
What is the cheapest region to buy a home in 2026?
The Midwest. Its median existing-home price was $340,400 in August 2026, compared with $366,500 in the South, $556,900 in the Northeast and $619,100 in the West, according to NAR.
Are home prices falling anywhere in 2026?
Yes, in some markets. Redfin reported year-over-year median sale price declines in Austin (-6.3%) and Fort Worth (-2.6%) in August 2026, and NAR found prices fell in about 20% of metro areas in the second quarter.
Next Step: Put the Cost of Moving Next to the Cost of Staying
If high housing costs have you looking at a lower-cost state, the math only works if you know the full cost of getting there. Get at least three written estimates based on a video or in-home survey, and ask for a binding or binding-not-to-exceed quote so your moving cost is fixed before you sign a lease or a purchase contract. Interstate Moving and Relocation Group can provide a written estimate for a long-distance move based on your inventory and route, so you can compare the cost of moving with the savings you expect at your destination.
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